America's Evolving Global Role
A 21st century Monroe Doctrine explains America's renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere
Since the day he descended an escalator to upend American politics, President Donald Trump has consistently delighted his supporters and confounded his critics. Seemingly on separate planets, these two groups hear the same pronouncements and emerge with radically different interpretations of what Trump said and what it might mean. During Trump’s first term, an adage emerged to explain this dynamic: Trump’s supporters take him seriously but not literally, while his detractors take him literally but not seriously.
Trump’s recent foreign policy statements are perfect examples: Invade Panama? Annex Canada? Buy Greenland?
Taking him literally, Trump’s critics believe he is hellbent on invading our allies. Described by some supporters as “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” the inability of these critics to unemotionally evaluate the President’s words inevitably leads to an incomplete interpretation of his intentions or likely actions. The conclusion: Trump is a madman without method. Literally, but not seriously.
Trump’s supporters take him seriously but not literally, while his detractors take him literally but not seriously.
Trump’s supporters, on the other hand, take such statements with a grain of salt, believing they are just opening gambits. They shrug off the suggestion America would invade a NATO ally or annex a neighbor to add another star to the flag. They don’t believe Trump will invade Greenland, but they grasp the island is vitally important to U.S. national and economic security. Looking past the madness, they detect a method – one in which the president makes bold statements out-of-the-gate, gaining advantage through surprise. Back during his days as a real estate developer, he was notorious for opening negotiations by threatening to sue everyone involved. Seriously, but not literally.
Behind the bombastic rhetoric, the United States may actually be telegraphing a coherent foreign policy, whether intentional or not. Whether it’s Panama, Greenland, Ukraine, or even the signature issue of illegal immigration, these dots connect to reveal a foreign policy that is increasingly focused on the Western Hemisphere—a 21st century version of the Monroe Doctrine. The emerging U.S. foreign policy, best captured by the “America First” slogan, is focused on keeping our adversaries out of our neighborhood.
Greenland and Panama are perfect examples. Not only are vital U.S. interests involved, but China has been trying to make inroads with both. Let’s not forget that China controls ports at both entrances/exits to the Panama Canal and offered to buy an old naval base in Greenland. America’s foreign policy, it appears, is telling our adversaries that our hemisphere is off limits.
Americans are increasingly skeptical of foreign interventionism and political leadership now reflects this sentiment. Ukraine is a case in point. With each passing day, we seem to be approaching a consensus that Russia is Europe’s problem…and if Europeans were truly worried about the threat, they would spend more on defense instead of expecting American protection while funding lavish entitlement programs. Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t view Russia as a threat to the United States. A simple interpretation of these dynamics suggests Trump likes Putin. Maybe… or maybe not. I don’t want to suggest I have any understanding of the motivations driving Trump’s actions, but is it possible there might be a more strategic rationale to the seemingly pro-Putin stance?
Could the warming of relations with Russia lead to a Kissinger-esque splitting of the Sino-Russian alliance? Might this be a reason President Xi recently felt the need to affirm China’s “no limits” friendship with Russia? If containment of the CCP is an objective, a US-Russia alliance would help with that goal. As Mark Twain is reputed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.”
Despite wild claims that accuse America of becoming both imperialist and isolationist, neither is true. The administration’s recent statements reflect a middle ground, focused on retreating from distant foreign entanglements while refocusing on and strengthening the Western Hemisphere, a policy that may soon be known as the Trump Doctrine.
If my interpretation of developments so far proves true, look for U.S. foreign policy to shift from East and West to North and South. The U.S. will pivot from Europe and the far reaches of the Pacific to the Americas and the Arctic. Every foreign policy discussion will start by asking about U.S. interests, and every deal with, “What do we get out of it?” The key political issues in America will switch to balancing trade relationships, stemming the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs into the U.S., and keeping adversaries such as China out of our backyard. A War on Cartels might replace the War on Terror. Policy will not be dictated by ideology but instead by dollars and cents. Far from imperialist, it is an attempt at avoid the imperial overreach that has doomed great powers in the past. Whereas the first Monroe Doctrine (and its corresponding Roosevelt Corollary) signaled American expansion, the second signals a return to our national interests.
The rest of the world may very well have to learn to fend for itself.
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. He’s currently the Chairman and CEO of Goodwell Foods, a manufacturer of private label frozen pizza. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World, Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.