Prediction Time! Care To Join Me?
An invitation to contribute to my annual look ahead.
For those that have followed my work for some time, you’re likely aware that I publish an annual set of predictions. While most people who produce such lists do so for the year ahead, I find it easier to identify developments when looking out five years. Shorter time frames, in my analysis, make it difficult to distinguish noise from signal As such, my annual piece has always focused on the global developments to watch in the forthcoming five years. Before I invite you to join me in developing my 2024 list of global developments to watch over the next five years, let’s review two “wins,” two “losses,” and two “yet-to-be determined outcomes” from prior years.
Pandemic Warning? Yes.
In 2015, I warned of a potential global pandemic and suggested that it may be caused by an airborne disease (at the time, I suggested Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) as the most likely) that would spread more rapidly than the attention grabbing Ebola disease that was dominating headlines. See #9 on my 15 Predictions for ‘15-’20:
15 Predictions for '15-'20
Domestic Instability in Saudi Arabia? No!
In 2016, I predicted that Saudi Arabia would face domestic unrest within its borders as a fall in oil prices would lead to decreased social spending, which in turn might result in popular calls for more freedom. While the domestic instability failed to materialize, the Kingdom did begin to liberalize social policy with the rise of Mohammed bin Salman. See #8 on my 16 Global Developments that You Need to Watch Over the Next Five Years:
16 Global Developments You Need To Watch Over The Next Five Years
Bitcoin Boom? Yup!
My January 2017 set of predictions included the following text: “Currency wars intensify, leading to a global investor stampede for non-printable currencies like gold and Bitcoin, both of which surge to all-time highs.” Well, that’s exactly what happened: Bitcoin went from under $1000 in January 2017 to over $60,000 in November 2021. See #10 on my 17 Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years:
17 Developments To Watch Over The Next Five Years
Taiwanese Independence? Nope!
In 2018, I made the suggestion that Taiwan would declare its independence from the People’s Republic of China. Not only has Taiwan not declared independence, there is now a major portion of the island’s population that supports stronger ties with the mainland, a development that may reveal itself in the upcoming presidential election. See #14 on my 18 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years by clicking below:
18 Global Developments to Watch Over The Next Five Years
First Female President? To Be Determined.
I have also made some provocative predictions that have yet to play out (but may). In January 2020, for instance, I suggested the United States would elect its first female president (see #10 on my 20 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years by clicking below:)
More recently, I have been working to make this prediction turn into reality. I am serving as a co-chair of Nikki Haley’s efforts in New Hampshire. See my endorsement of her by clicking below:
Privacy Protection Policy? To Be Determined.
One of the more alarming developments that I discussed in 2021 was the rapid expansion of surveillance capitalism and the power of big information technology companies to monetize personal data. I suggested that popular outrage would lead to privacy protection policies that might disrupt big tech’s ability to mine personal data for marketing insights. See #2 on my 21 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years:
21 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years
Looking Forward: What Do You Think?
In addition to spending quality time with family and friends over the holidays, I’ve come to really enjoy the process of developing my annual predictions. It involves reading broadly and thinking widely about what might happen over the next five years. This year, I’m inviting you to join me by providing your thoughts. This is not to say that I will blindly adopt suggestions made here, but I will definitely include them into my process. As such, I encourage you to post any suggested predictions in the comments below. I’ve also prepared five polls:
Concluding Thoughts
I want to take this opportunity to thank each and every one of you for your continued support and encouragement as I launched NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY this year. I will be transitioning the newsletter to a twice a month publication in 2024 so I can spend time promoting my new book, The Making of a Generalist, which is scheduled to come out in January. I’ll be using the final newsletter next week to give you an early glimpse into the book and its material, so please do read next week’s piece!
Wishing you a very happy and healthy holiday season and success in navigating 2024’s inevitable uncertainty!
Best,
Vikram
About Vikram Mansharamani
Vikram Mansharamani is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of two books, Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.