Prediction Time! Care To Join Me?
An invitation to contribute to my annual look ahead.
For those that have followed my work for some time, you’re likely aware that I publish an annual set of predictions. While most people who produce such lists do so for the year ahead, I find it easier to identify developments when looking out five years. Shorter time frames, in my analysis, make it difficult to distinguish noise from signal As such, my annual piece has always focused on the global developments to watch in the forthcoming five years. Before I invite you to join me in developing my 2024 list of global developments to watch over the next five years, let’s review two “wins,” two “losses,” and two “yet-to-be determined outcomes” from prior years.
Pandemic Warning? Yes.
In 2015, I warned of a potential global pandemic and suggested that it may be caused by an airborne disease (at the time, I suggested Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) as the most likely) that would spread more rapidly than the attention grabbing Ebola disease that was dominating headlines. See #9 on my 15 Predictions for ‘15-’20:
15 Predictions for '15-'20
15 Predictions for '15-'20 2014 was an action-packed year: Russia invaded Crimea, US energy production surged, the South China Sea disputes escalated, Hong Kong students protested, Malaysia literally lost an aircraft with hundreds of passengers, Scotland denied the UK independence (an admittedly Scottish interpretation), Spain had a succession movement, …
Domestic Instability in Saudi Arabia? No!
In 2016, I predicted that Saudi Arabia would face domestic unrest within its borders as a fall in oil prices would lead to decreased social spending, which in turn might result in popular calls for more freedom. While the domestic instability failed to materialize, the Kingdom did begin to liberalize social policy with the rise of Mohammed bin Salman. See #8 on my 16 Global Developments that You Need to Watch Over the Next Five Years:
16 Global Developments You Need To Watch Over The Next Five Years
2015 was a roller coaster of a year for analysts of global economics and politics. Terrorist tragedies from the US and France to Nigeria and Iraq shocked us, Nepal suffered a devastating earthquake, and Volkswagen’s massive fraud surfaced. A million migrants flowed into Europe, and a nuclear deal was reached with Iran. The US and Cuba made progress in…
Bitcoin Boom? Yup!
My January 2017 set of predictions included the following text: “Currency wars intensify, leading to a global investor stampede for non-printable currencies like gold and Bitcoin, both of which surge to all-time highs.” Well, that’s exactly what happened: Bitcoin went from under $1000 in January 2017 to over $60,000 in November 2021. See #10 on my 17 Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years:
17 Developments To Watch Over The Next Five Years
What a year we just completed! Slow growth and widening inequality spurred populist uprisings around the world. Globalization is in retreat. Europe continued to crumble and the US Dollar strengthened, dampening the price of gold and other commodities. Bitcoin rose as the global scramble for non-printable currencies accelerated. And of course, it’s impos…
Taiwanese Independence? Nope!
In 2018, I made the suggestion that Taiwan would declare its independence from the People’s Republic of China. Not only has Taiwan not declared independence, there is now a major portion of the island’s population that supports stronger ties with the mainland, a development that may reveal itself in the upcoming presidential election. See #14 on my 18 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years by clicking below:
18 Global Developments to Watch Over The Next Five Years
2017 was a year marked by a series of seemingly seismic shifts, many of which disrupted the status quo. Robert Mugabe’s 37 year (mis)rule of Zimbabwe ended; sexual harassment made headlines globally, and American tax policies were reformed. The war on corruption accelerated, with notable casualties surfacing in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and …
First Female President? To Be Determined.
I have also made some provocative predictions that have yet to play out (but may). In January 2020, for instance, I suggested the United States would elect its first female president (see #10 on my 20 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years by clicking below:)
20 Global Developments to Watch Over The Next Five Years
2019 was another action-packed year. America’s economic expansion became the country’s longest, social unrest and protests spread globally, and Saudi Aramco’s $2 trillion valuation made it the world’s most valuable listed company. The US-China trade war
More recently, I have been working to make this prediction turn into reality. I am serving as a co-chair of Nikki Haley’s efforts in New Hampshire. See my endorsement of her by clicking below:
Privacy Protection Policy? To Be Determined.
One of the more alarming developments that I discussed in 2021 was the rapid expansion of surveillance capitalism and the power of big information technology companies to monetize personal data. I suggested that popular outrage would lead to privacy protection policies that might disrupt big tech’s ability to mine personal data for marketing insights. See #2 on my 21 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years:
21 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years
21 Global Developments to Watch Over the Next Five Years January 6, 2021 2020 will go down as one of the most anxiety-inducing, stomach-churning, confidence-sapping, and downright disappointing years on record. While it began with a global fascination on the potential impeachment of the US president, that news was quickly followed by the US drone strike o…
Looking Forward: What Do You Think?
In addition to spending quality time with family and friends over the holidays, I’ve come to really enjoy the process of developing my annual predictions. It involves reading broadly and thinking widely about what might happen over the next five years. This year, I’m inviting you to join me by providing your thoughts. This is not to say that I will blindly adopt suggestions made here, but I will definitely include them into my process. As such, I encourage you to post any suggested predictions in the comments below. I’ve also prepared five polls:
Concluding Thoughts
I want to take this opportunity to thank each and every one of you for your continued support and encouragement as I launched NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY this year. I will be transitioning the newsletter to a twice a month publication in 2024 so I can spend time promoting my new book, The Making of a Generalist, which is scheduled to come out in January. I’ll be using the final newsletter next week to give you an early glimpse into the book and its material, so please do read next week’s piece!
Wishing you a very happy and healthy holiday season and success in navigating 2024’s inevitable uncertainty!
Best,
Vikram
About Vikram Mansharamani
Vikram Mansharamani is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of two books, Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.