Welcome to Navigating Uncertainty
What to expect
Most of us are drowning in information, news, and commentary. Few of us can keep up. And in the midst of this flood of data, I’m launching a newsletter?! Which leads to a simple question:
Why add to the noise that is bombarding us everyday?
The short answer is that I believe I have a different way of interpreting the world that is helpful when navigating today’s overwhelming uncertainty. I am different than most writers, analysts, academics, journalists, and commentators in that I take a different approach to analyzing developments that might disrupt our lives.
I am a generalist and utilize a wide-angle lens that emphasizes breadth of perspective over depth of expertise—an approach that crosses industries, functions, and topics;
I adopt a global perspective that values understanding the world and international dynamics—an approach that incorporates geopolitical and other cross-border considerations; and
I embrace a long term view and believe that doing so increases the probability of identifying signals amidst the short-term noise—an approach that emphasizes structural trends.
This approach has helped me navigate uncertainty in my personal and professional life and I'm hoping it will help you as well.
For those who have followed me, you’ll know that I am interested in a wide range of subjects. In the past, I’ve written about the world’s insatiable appetite for animal protein, the rise of cryptocurrencies, China’s ambitions in space, how to manage experts, the epidemic of grade inflation, the future of energy, and how the weather can impact elections, among other topics. I’ve always written for a general audience.
Going forward, I’ll be commenting on economics, geopolitics, technology, energy, culture, education, and politics. I’ll also dive into specific countries, policies, companies, and people. And I’ll definitely be writing about inflation, the Fed, and financial markets. Regardless of topic, I’ll focus on identifying opportunities within the risks while demonstrating how seemingly irrelevant developments in disparate domains can connect in surprising ways to impact our lives.
I expect to post a comment roughly once a week. Some weeks will be about one particular topic, others may be a reflection on several developments. Most of my material will be available to all subscribers for free. Paid subscribers will also have access to the full archive of my work, exclusive access to paid-subscriber-only content, and the ability to post comments and interact with the community I’m building.
I hope you’ll help me spread the news of NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY to anyone who might enjoy reading this newsletter.