Travel Tales: Canada, UAE, and Brazil

How my wandering and wondering leads to insights

Nov 21, 2023

As a speaker who’s often introduced as a global trend-watcher and analyst, it’s not unusual for me to get asked questions about geopolitical or geo-economic developments. What do I think is going to happen with China and Taiwan? What are my thoughts on cryptocurrencies? How will electrification mandates impact the emerging markets? Will the US economy enter a recession next year?

But every now and then, I’m asked about my approach to making sense of the world (rather than my thoughts about what is currently happening). I love these questions as they provide an opportunity for me to describe the process I use to generate insights. Recently, I was asked a question that was more specific: “What’s it like to be Vikram?” The question threw me as I don’t really think about what it’s like to be me…I just am. I incoherently answered by saying it was hectic, that I read broadly, and that I ask lots of questions. It clearly wasn’t satisfying as one young professional chimed in with a request: “I know there’s no formula for being a generalist, but I’d really love it if you could write a piece about a day in the life of Vikram!”

Then, a few days ago, I was complaining to a friend about my intense travels over the past few weeks and she asked a very pointed question: “So what exactly do you do on your trips?” Coincidentally, at lunch this weekend, my kids asked what I did on my last trip. I answered with a question, asking if they knew what I do while I’m on the road. They shrugged before responding “give speeches, have fancy dinners?”

To answer my family as well as those who are curious, I sat down to describe a day in my life. Except when I tried to write up such a piece, it was bluntly obvious there is no “typical” day in my life. So, I decided instead to share highlights from three international trips I have taken since I wrote “4 Continents, 5 Weeks, and 6 Countries” in September. Some of the following details may seem random, but that’s actually part of my process. I collect lots of dots by immersing wherever I go and while some prove useless, others are essential tiles that form a trend-revealing mosaic.

Montreal (Canada)

In late September, I was invited to participate in WhiteHaven Day, an investment symposium hosted by the investment group’s innovative founder Tommy Baltzis. Tommy and I have known each other for years and he’s been a supporter of my work, distributing hundreds of copies of my books to friends and clients.

I was honored to attend and share some of my thoughts about the world we’re in and more importantly, my admiration for the work he’s done at WhiteHaven to democratize access to alternative investments. And like me, the WhiteHaven motto of “Challenge Everything” is more than a saying, it’s a way of being. Tommy and his team have created structures that allow everyday savers to make investments in hotels, film and TV projects, mortgages, structured credit, and alternative energy and power solutions, for instance.

How did I get there? I drove myself from Lincoln, NH to Montreal. It was a beautiful drive that led north, through Vermont briefly and into Canada. The border crossing was efficient, and the whole trip took around 3 hours (I timed my departure to avoid Montreal rush hour!). I stayed in Old Montreal and joined a few other Whitehaven fans for dinner that evening at The Keg Steakhouse and Bar.

The next day I worked at the hotel on a presentation I was scheduled to give to a potential consulting client, and spent a few hours at the WhiteHaven investment symposium, during which I made some comments and also signed books for dozens of attendees. (Interestingly, Whitehaven has invested in The FashionHero TV series hosted by AJ McLean of the Backstreet Boys).

Signing Books at WhiteHaven Day, Montreal, Canada

I took an afternoon break to meet Mathieu St-Jean, a friend who I’ve know for more than a decade who I had originally met when he ran a part of the investment arm of Canadian National Railway. He suggested we meet at Crew Collective & Cafe which was located in the original headquarters of the Royal Bank of Canada. (Incidentally, for those that know of my fascination with skyscrapers as a bubble indicator, you’ll find it interesting that the Royal Bank Tower was the tallest structure in the British Empire at the time it was built in 1928…on the eve of the Great Depression!). Not only did we have a great coffee, but we also compared notes on the political dynamics in our respective countries, the implications for financial markets, and how to think about best serving our nations. Mathieu is an astute observer of the world and I always feel like I learn when I chat with him.

That evening, I joined Tommy and the Whitehaven team in Old Montreal for dinner and drinks. It was an enjoyable evening filled with great conversation, live music, and wonderful food.

The next morning I drove home, stopping at the border to chat with US Customs and Border Protection agents about the security of the border and challenges they’ve faced in the area. They noted the Buffalo NY area was the preferred destination for illegal crossings but that they were increasing in the Vermont and New Hampshire areas as well. For the rest of my ride home, I listened to Bloomberg radio and got caught up on the latest global economic data.

So What?

As a result of this trip, I started thinking about a few different topics:

My visit to the Royal Bank tower reminded me to re-visit the relationship I had written about between skyscrapers and financial bubbles. As I discussed in Boombustology and in Forbes, construction of the world’s tallest skyscrapers tended to telegraph forthcoming financial or economic troubles. So when I returned home, I did some quick research that revealed the Burj Khalifa continues to hold the title of world tallest free-standing structure and there doesn’t appear to be any contenders to take the title in the next five years. With that said, almost all of the world’s tallest skyscrapers under construction are being built in China. Was this another warning sign of economic weakness in the world’s second largest economy?
My discussion with the border agents really got me thinking about the northern border of the United States. With all the attention focused on the southern border and the flow of migrants into America, perhaps the northern border deserved more attention? I looked quickly and found America's Northern Border Strategy hadn’t been updated since 2018 and promised myself I’d dig further into the issue.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai (UAE)

In mid October, shortly after the Hamas terrorists attacks on Israel, I boarded an evening flight from Boston’s Logan Airport to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. For those that have never flown on Emirates Airlines, it’s a real treat. The service was great, the food fabulous, and the lie flat seat was actually comfortable enough for me to sleep for five or so of the twelve hour flight. Interestingly, the flight path passed through Ukrainian, Iraqi, and Iranian airspace before crossing the Persian Gulf to land in the UAE. (While aboard, I read an article about Emirates once getting fined for flying in Iranian airspace as a codeshare flight that had partnered with JetBlue…but that’s another topic!) Upon landing, I traveled the 90 minutes or so to Abu Dhabi by car, before checking into a hotel located on the Corniche.

I had planned to meet some investors from a venture capital firm I was advising for the weekend, but the war in Israel had disrupted their plans. The result, I was given a much-needed day and a half to recover from the international travel and the 9 hour time difference. I was up for most of the night writing my weekly piece and then slept for half of the day. I stayed in the hotel for all my meals and literally didn’t leave the property. It was a struggle to beat the jet lag, and I broke down in the afternoon and reached for the gummy bears that were in the room. But because I have allergies to dairy and gluten, I always read ingredients (some gummy bears have gluten). Unfortunately, food labeling laws in the UAE are not as stringent as they are in the United States, Europe or Canada.

The next day I had breakfast with former clients and was scheduled to meet with senior government officials. Unfortunately, the arrival of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken took precedence and I instead spent the afternoon prepping for the meetings with potential investors that I was now going to be doing solo rather than with the investment team I had come to assist.

The remainder of the trip was filled with meetings and attending sessions of a conference about complex risks (artificial intelligence, geostrategic competition, etc.) that was taking place while I was in town. I met with professionals who were advising the wealthiest families on the planet how to invest their capital, officials who were responsible for designing and implementing the UAE’s space policy, and a member of the Prime Minister’s staff.

One of the most enjoyable parts of the trip, however, was my discovery of camel milk ice cream and camel milk chocolate! (As someone with a dairy allergy — and camel milk is safe for those of us allergic to cow milk proteins — this was a heavenly treat!)

A real highlight of the trip was having dinner with my friend Murad Ansari whom I’ve known for almost 20 years but unfortunately see far too rarely. Murray is originally from Pakistan but has spent 15 years or so working in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He’s a brilliant analyst and always has great insights. We caught up on global affairs, his thoughts on financial markets, and how Dubai had changed since the pandemic. We had dinner at Nammos, a fancy schmancy Greek restaurant that was filled with beautiful people and had amazing food (and a stunning price tag).

When I noted how expensive the bill was, Murad shared that some restaurants in the UAE now have minimum required spending of US$2500 or more per person to reserve a table! Apparently, the global hedge fund community had figured out that the location and time zone allowed easy connections and communication with almost every region on the planet. (This was obvious in the number of expensive cars visible at every parking lot!)

Having watched the news about the escalating tensions between Iran and the western world, I had trouble sleeping on my flight home as I watched the flightpath tracking my plane as it entered Iranian airspace, and proceeded towards Tehran before it turned towards Iraq. I couldn't help but think of the movie Argo as I ordered a cocktail once we left Iranian airspace.

So What?

As a result of this trip, I started thinking about a few different topics:

If the world really does bifurcate into two global economic ecosystems, as I believe is starting to happen right now, what does that mean for the air travel industry? Will geopolitics be an increasingly important consideration for route selection? And will this additional friction pressure prices as only certain carriers are able to fly over certain countries?
Perhaps because I was so excited about the camel milk, I could not stop thinking about the future of food and specifically protein. How was the planet going to feed its surging population? As diets shifted and more and more of the world began increasing their consumption of animal protein and fresh dairy, what would the implications be for the agricultural value chain? Would fish consumption boom as the carbon footprint of livestock was highlighted?

Sao Paolo (Brazil)

After attending a board meeting in Florida, I headed off to Sao Paolo, Brazil to speak at a large gathering of senior Latin American steel executives in mid November. Because of an overbooked schedule, I had to fly into Brazil the morning of my talk, something that I try desperately to avoid.

I’ve been in some nasty traffic in my life (Lagos Nigeria was perhaps the worst!) and had heard warnings about Sao Paolo at rush hour. The schedule was so tight that the conference organizers arranged for helicopter transfer from the international airport to the conference venue.

The trip was smooth and efficient and I’m pleased to report I was on stage on time, with the side benefit of having obtained a unique perspective of Latin America’s most populous city. My talk was about the rapidly escalating US China war and how countries in Latin America would likely be forced to pick sides. It was controversial and led to some heated conversations among folks during coffee breaks, but I think it spurred some necessary reflection.

Because of the redeye flight that was not nearly as comfortable as the Emirates flight, I spent the afternoon napping. I awoke in time to meet a journalist for a coffee (he was as interested in American politics as I was in Brazilian politics!) before heading to join the conference organizers for drinks and a reception. That evening I spent some time with steel industry executives from Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Argentina.

The next day was spent meeting with industry executives as well as visiting with venture capitalists and family office executives in Sao Paolo. I had four meetings and then squeezed in a quick caipirinha with my hosts at a local boteco before heading back to the airport. 36 hours after landing in the country, I was again heading through passport control and boarded my flight soon thereafter.

So What?

As a result of this trip, I started thinking about a few different topics:

Many of us regularly complain about traffic, but what are the true economic implications of having so many people stuck in cars and unproductive? Surely the return on infrastructure investment would be enormous in cities such as Sao Paolo that face debilitating bottlenecks. While it’s impossible to fully analyze, surely providing traffic relief would improve mental health, increase a society’s productivity, and likely improve the economy’s efficiency, right? So why don’t governments prioritize these investments? Is it because of the short-term cost and disruption and the fact that the returns take time?
I was thrilled to meet with some prominent venture capitalists and investors in Sao Paolo. I couldn’t help but think about the global distribution of talent and new innovative ideas. Surely there were entrepreneurs and inventors everywhere, but the lack of seed capital or initial funding might prevent most of this talent from ever seeing their ideas impact the world. How much better might our world be if venture capital and a culture of risk-taking entrepreneurship spread around the world? What new ideas might emerge?

Wandering and Wondering

For those that have followed my work for a while, you’ll know that I deeply believe in a generalist approach to navigating uncertainty. I am convinced that each perspective is limited, biased and incomplete and the only hope we have to understand the dynamics driving our world today is to triangulate using many lenses.

As you can tell from a few of my most recent trips, I wander between industries, functions, geographies and topics. Along the way I collect all sorts of data that may prove useful, but also may be worthless. I think about what I observe and try to constantly incorporate my findings into an ever-evolving worldview. I also find this approach of wandering and wondering to be a fulfilling, interesting, informative, and fun way to generate insights.

The future is uncertain, and it’s hard to predict it with any accuracy. But I’m going to predict something that I’m pretty certain will happen. I am staying here in New Hampshire this week! I plan to celebrate Thanksgiving at home in the White Mountains with family and friends and wish my American friends the very best for a happy, relaxing, and stress-free Thanksgiving holiday!

Navigating Uncertainty

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