Is Colombia the Next Front in the US-China War?
America needs to stop Chinese encroachment in the Western hemisphere
As I’ve said multiple times, I believe the world is bifurcating into two global ecosystems. Politics has displaced economics as the main driver of activity in the world, and the US-China war is forcing countries to pick sides. The reorganization of global economy around relationships rather than issue-led transactions is quite possibly the defining development of our time. Leaders around the world are going to have to choose between Washington and Beijing.
The Chinese are trying to make the choice easy. They have launched numerous programs to bring countries into their ecosystem. Consider the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), previously known as the “One Belt, One Road” program, something I called “the most significant global economic initiative in the world” in 2016. BRI is a trillion dollar program through which the People’s Republic plans to rebuild the Silk Road and reconnect China with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America by building ports, railways, airports, highways, electricity grids, and other critical infrastructure. The Belt & Road Initiative had multiple objectives, ranging from securing energy and raw materials for China’s economy to creating future markets for Chinese goods. It also promised to increase Beijing’s geopolitical clout.
Chinese activities in the Western hemisphere are particularly noteworthy. BRI agreements have been signed with Cuba,Venezuela, Chile, Peru, Panama, and Uruguay as well as dozens of smaller countries. Two countries in Latin America are noticeably absent from the list: Brazil and Colombia. Does this mean that the two countries are resisting Chinese influence? Are they opting to remain in the US ecosystem?
Brazil is trying to not pick sides, something explicitly noted by The Economist Intelligence Unit, by opting to align ever closer with Beijing without formally joining the Belt & Road Initiative. Recall Brazil’s statements regarding a move away from US dollar settlement for Brazil-China trade. Or consider that China is the destination for more than a quarter of Brazilian exports, with agricultural products such as soybeans topping the list, making Brazil another front in the currently escalating global food fight. And of course, Brazil is the “B” in the BRICs alliance of emerging countries that are beginning to jointly flex their economic muscle. When push comes to shove, if Brazil were forced to pick sides, their actions to date suggest they’d choose Beijing over Washington.
Unlike Brazil, Colombia offers a potentially different outcome. The United States and Colombia have remained strong allies for more than two centuries and despite the occasional setbacks such as President Teddy Roosevelt’s recognition of Panama as independent country breaking away from Colombia or President Bill Clinton’s decertification of Colombia as a partner in the war on drugs, Bogota and Washington have managed to collaborate on a wide range of topics including climate change efforts, migrant management, and counternarcotics programs. Further, in March 2022, American President Joe Biden announced the United States had designated Colombia a major non-NATO ally in recognition of two hundred years of diplomatic ties. As a result of this designation, Bogota gained access to numerous economic and security programs.
In March 2022, American President Joe Biden announced the United States had designated Colombia a major non-NATO ally in recognition of two hundred years of diplomatic ties.
All of this was before the June 19, 2022 election victory of Gustavo Petro and his running mate, Afro-Colombian environmental activist Francia Marquez, as Colombia’s first leftist leaders in decades. While left-leaning politicians are quite common in Latin America, Colombia had been dominated by right-leaning leaders for decades since Alvaro Uribe came to power in 2002 and began an all-out military campaign against leftist guerrilla groups such as the FARC and ELN. Uribe’s anointed successors, Juan Manuel Santos and Ivan Duque, held Colombia’s highest office until Petro’s victory in 2002. Petro, a former member of the M19 armed guerilla movement and former Mayor of Bogota, received a congratulatory call from Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.
Petro and Marquez ran on a campaign promising to transition the country towards “total peace” and away from an economy dependent upon extracting raw materials and trading illicit drugs. According to Dr. Will Freeman, a Latin American Studies Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations:
To date, violence has not subsided and the trade in illicit drugs is booming. The economic challenges facing Petro, however, raise more alarm bells, and for good reason. A combination of high inflation, slow growth, and a rapidly depreciating peso have combined with high debt levels (more than 30% of Colombian government debt is denominated in US dollars) to pinch the government’s budget and Petro’s spending plans. And Petro’s promise of transitioning from fossil fuels also appears challenged, given that oil revenues provide a meaningful share of the government’s budget. In addition, the country lost its investment grade credit rating in 2021, and pandemic-induced unemployment remains elevated. All of this makes Colombia increasingly vulnerable to outside influence, and therefore an important front in the US-China war. From this perspective, America seems to be letting Chinese encroachments to happen without any competition.
China’s ambitions in Colombia are not new. In fact, the Economic & Commercial Counselor for the Chinese embassy in Bogota publicly acknowledged Beijing’s interest and even shared its rationale: “Colombia is strategically important in the region and is the only country in South America that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and is politically and economically stable.”
Even though Colombia is not officially part of the Belt & Road Initiative, this is not stopping China from acting as if Bogota had signed an agreement with Beijing. Here’s a partial listing of major infrastructure projects involving Chinese companies in Colombia:
China’s Zijin Mining purchased the Buritica mine, which contains one of Colombia’s largest gold deposits, in late 2019 for US$1 billion and began operations in 2020.
As clear from this short (and incomplete) list, Beijing is obviously interested in developing deeper ties to Colombia…with or without the Belt & Road Initiative. And while the BRI program has not been without its hiccups, it has been a contributing factor to the death of global multilateralism and accusations of Chinese colonialism in Africa and South Asia. Sri Lanka, for instance, was unable to pay loans taken from the Chinese to build a port. Beijing resolved the issue by taking over the port, and utilizing it for Chinese navy vessels. Critics of the BRI note that such debt traps are Beijing’s way of gaining influence.
So is there any parallel between what happened in Sri Lanka and what’s happening in Colombia? While it’s too early to tell, it did catch my attention that China Harbor Engineering Company, the company that the New York Times says “got Sri Lanka to cough up a port,” is leading the effort to build the Bogota Metro and the Mar2 highway connecting Medellin to the port. Will they get Colombia to cough up control of the Bogota Metro or the highway?
Is China de facto trying to colonize Colombia, to gain undue influence and loyalty via its infrastructure-oriented debt diplomacy? Before you answer, please note Chinese investment in Colombia tripled from 2021 to 2022 and seems to be accelerating at the every same time that Bogota has been struggling economically.
Monroe Doctrine 2.0
The United States needs to help Colombia’s economic recovery to stop China’s ongoing encroachments in the Western hemisphere. The recent election of left-leaning leadership in Colombia has created a new risk in a long standing partner, one that America recently designed a major non-NATO ally. The United States and allies recently launched its Build Back Better World (B3W) program as an attempt to combat the Belt & Road Initiative by helping to finance and build infrastructure in low and middle-income nations. But as John Padilla, managing director at IPD Latin America, notes in Foreign Policy,
Now is the time for American leadership to counteract Chinese influence in the Western hemisphere. Strong statements and financial support need to work in tandem to assure countries such as Colombia don’t default to China. The US needs a modernized version of the Monroe Doctrine, one that makes it clear to China that the Americas are off-limits. Perhaps the United States should declare a slightly modified version of the words written by John Quincy Adams:
The occasion has been judged proper for asserting, as a principle in which the rights and interests of the United States are involved, that the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by China or any other global powers.
The United States can and should stop and roll back Chinese encroachments in North and South America. Implementing such a policy, however, will require commitment, resolve, and dollars. Colombia has been and can continue to be a loyal friend to America. The time has come to support Colombia so Bogota does not feel compelled to run into Beijing’s arms.
About Vikram Mansharamani
Dr. Mansharamani is a global generalist who tries to look beyond the short term view that tends to dominate today’s agenda. He spends his time speaking with leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism…and prides himself on voraciously consuming a wide variety of books, magazines, articles, TV shows, and podcasts. LinkedIn twice listed him as their #1 Top Voice for Global Economics and Worthprofiled him on their list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. He has taught at Yale and Harvard and has a PhD and two masters degrees from MIT. He is also the author of THINK FOR YOURSELF: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence as well as BOOMBUSTOLOGY: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn.
You say, "America needs to stop Chinese encroachment in the Western hemisphere." Says who? This is a very sick US elite attitude. With its wide open southern border US isn't even a country itself, and thus isn't qualified to pass judgments on what other countries do. Further, when you say "America" you mean US taxpayers, people forced to pay taxes to an open borders criminal operation. First, close the southern border. Wait ten years to see it it's enforced. Then we'll consider if you're qualified to grab our money. As to Colombia, it's a terrible example. Soros has destabilized it and increased terrorism for decades. Jan. 13, 2017, “AFTER DECADES OF COVERT SUPPORT FOR TERRORISTS, SOROS REVEALS HIMSELF IN COLOMBIA,” periodisimosinfronteras.org, Lia Fowler ....US "help" is always worse misery.